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As the calendar turns to December 26, 2025, Wall Street is unwrapping a familiar gift: the "Santa Claus Rally." With the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) flirting with the psychological milestone of 7,000 points and hitting a record close of 6,920 just before the holiday break, investor optimism
As the final week of 2025 unfolds, the hallowed halls of the New York Stock Exchange and the digital corridors of the Nasdaq have transformed into a "ghost town." With many institutional traders having shuttered their desks for the season, the markets are grappling with a classic year-end phenomenon: the
Monday’s session brought a clear improvement in short-term breadth, with advancers firmly in control and the weekly breadth picture flipping back toward neutral/positive. Participation above key moving averages remains just above the 50% line? supportive, but not the kind of broad “all-oars-in-the-water” thrust that typically powers sustained breakouts.
Friday brought another constructive “repair” day after Thursday’s bounce: advancers stayed in control, 4% winners expanded, and new highs continued to outpace new lows. Still, the bigger picture remains mixed, weekly breadth is still tilted to decliners and the 3-month ledger remains slightly negative, suggesting this rebound needs follow-through to become a durable trend.
After Wednesday’s heavy selling, Thursday delivered a clear breadth rebound: advancers retook control and the “big down” day count normalized. But zooming out, the market is still working through short-term damage, weekly breadth remains skewed to decliners and the major ETFs are still battling key moving averages and overhead supply.
Wednesday’s pullback wasn’t just an index dip, participation weakened materially. Daily and weekly breadth flipped decisively bearish, breakouts dried up, and a growing chunk of stocks slipped back under short-term moving averages. Longer-term trend structure is still intact, but the tape is starting to feel more like “distribution” than “healthy digestion.”
Tuesday’s session kept the headline indexes relatively contained, but internal participation continued to soften. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in short-term pullback mode below their fast moving averages, while small caps are busy retesting a key breakout zone. Longer-term trends are still constructive, yet the breadth “engine” is clearly running less efficiently than it did earlier in December.
Major ETFs are still holding key support on the weekly timeframe, but participation under the surface continues to fade. Monday’s session showed a still-negative advance/decline split and a noticeable rise in “hard down” movers (>4%), while fewer stocks remain above short-term moving averages. The tape is not breaking yet, but it’s getting thinner.
Friday delivered a clear “risk-off” breadth reset: decliners overwhelmed advancers and downside volatility picked up, on heavier-than-average volume. Yet beneath the one-day damage, participation across key moving-average measures and longer timeframes remains broadly constructive, suggesting more of a cooling phase than a trend break.
Thursday’s session looked more like a controlled handoff than a reversal: IWM broke out convincingly, SPY kept grinding near the highs, and QQQ cooled off under resistance.
U.S. equities extended Tuesday’s rebound on Wednesday, with small caps taking the lead and breadth strengthening across most horizons. The damage from Monday’s sell-off is now largely repaired, and medium- to long-term participation remains firmly constructive, although SPY and QQQ still need decisive breakouts from their short-term ranges.
After Monday’s risk-off session, Tuesday brought a modest rebound with the Russell 2000 pushing into new high territory while SPY and QQQ hover just below resistance. Breadth metrics ticked back toward neutral-to-positive, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact even as rotation and short-term noise continue under the surface.
After Friday’s first signs of fatigue, Monday’s session brought another day of weak participation while the major U.S. indices hovered near record highs. Short- and medium-term breadth ticked lower again, but the majority of stocks still trade above key moving averages and new lows remain limited. The current breadth trend remains neutral with a slight positive bias, but the cushion is getting thinner.
The muted action reflects a broader sense of indecision across markets, with traders weighing the central bank’s interest-rate path against the latest geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
U.S. indices finished the week parked right under resistance with only a mild negative breadth day on Friday. Under the surface, participation remains broad and trend metrics are still strong, but the post-selloff rebound is clearly shifting from “surge” to “digestion,” especially in small caps.
After a powerful breadth surge in the previous session, Thursday’s action cooled but remained net positive. Major indexes are pressing into resistance zones while most breadth gauges hold above the 50% line, pointing to a healthy uptrend that is starting to look extended rather than euphoric.
After Monday’s wobble at resistance, Wednesday’s session delivered the broad-based follow-through that was missing on Tuesday. Advances outnumbered declines three to one, participation above key moving averages ticked higher again, and small caps (IWM) finally caught up with the large-cap indices. The intermediate trend in market breadth moves back into clearly positive territory, albeit with major indices still pressing against overhead resistance zones.
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